CommodityTrends Weekly Newsletter

As of Friday, September 19, 2025 15:54 CT

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View the trade opportunities and commodity markets Jim is watching to see where the markets may be headed.

Summary

October Feeder Cattle Pulls Back After Hitting Record Highs


Oct Feeder Cattle has delivered an impressive 16.5% advance over the past three months, securing a spot among the top-performing commodity markets. The rally carried prices to fresh all-time highs of 369.375 on August 27, 2025, before momentum began to cool off some in September.

Technically, the market may be setting up a potential 1-2-3 top reversal pattern. The #1 point is the August high, while the #2 point is the recent pullback low (September 12). I'm watching for a #3 point to develop and setup a possible shorting opportunity.

Key levels to watch include:

>Blue lines (daily support/resistance), with immediate support around 348.475 and deeper support near 338.950.

>Gold lines (weekly chart levels) that continue to frame the longer-term structure.

>The green uptrend line providing underlying support dating back to the early portion of the spring rally.

While the broader uptrend remains intact, the appearance of a potential topping pattern is cause for concern. If the bulls regain control, we could see price retest the record highs. If not, the door may open for a deeper pullback, especially if support levels and zones give way.

For now, Feeder Cattle stands out as both a leader in performance and a market at a possible technical turning point. Keep watching.

Markets I'm Watching

View the trade opportunities and markets Jim is watching along with the Trend Seeker rating per commodity to see where the market is headed. Here are the markets and opportunities I am watching right now. For more information about these markets, be sure to check My Chart Book and CommodityTrends Daily Video Service.

Grains Market

Nov Rough Rice broke below the previous #1 bottom point this week, negating the previous setup. The new #1 bottom point is 11.310 (the low on Sept. 15). Keep watching.

Grains Market

Dec Soybean Meal has formed a large 1-2-3 bottom pattern. The #1 point is 272.6 (the low on July 31). The #2 point is 300.1 (the high on August 14). The #3 point is 281.40 (the low on Sept. 4. Price has already triggered an entry based on the 1-2-3 formation. However, a MET will be triggered on a break above the Sept. 9 high. If filled, the initial stop loss can be placed below the Sept. 8 low. The initial target is the blue horizontal resistance line at 298.8. Keep watching.

Grains Market

Dec Wheat has developed #1 bottom point is 512-0 (the low on Sept. 11). Its #2 bottom point is 535-6 (the high on Sept. 17). Keep watching for all of the 1-2-3 strategy criteria to be met.

Metals Market

Oct Platinum developed a large 1-2-3 top formation. Last week I wrote. . . "A break below the September 4 low would trigger a potential downside entry. For risk management, traders could place the initial stop just above the #3 point, or alternatively just above the entry day’s high, depending on risk tolerance. The first downside target is the #2 point low at 1271.10."

An entry was triggered on Sept. 9. If the stop was placed above the entry day's high, it would have been triggered on Sept. 10. If the stop was placed above the #3 point, the trade would still be active. 

Energies Market

To give the setup more time to develop, I’ve shifted focus from Oct Natural Gas to Nov Natural Gas. A 1-2-3 bottom has formed, but price is now testing the #3 point. If it breaks below, I’ll wait for a new #3 point to form. If it holds, and instead pushes higher, an upside MET entry could trigger on a breakout above the Sept. 17 high. Keep watching.


Meats Market

Dec Live Cattle has developed a #1 top point at 243.575 (the high on August 27), a #2 point at 230.075 (the low on Sept. 10) and a #3 point at 236.525 (the high on Sept. 15). Price is now testing the #3 point. If it breaks above, I’ll wait for a new #3 point to form. If price holds, and instead pushes lower, a downside MET entry could trigger on a break below the Sept. 17 low. Keep watching.

WARNING: FUTURES AND OPTIONS trading involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options contracts can be substantial. There is a high degree of leverage in futures trading because of the small margin requirements. This leverage can work against you as well as for you and can lead to large losses as well as large gains. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In the event the account has losses, you may need to deposit additional funds to maintain margin or to initiate new positions as called for by the trading program. This brief statement cannot disclose all the risks and other significant aspects of the commodity markets. You should carefully study commodity trading and consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources before you trade. Please know that the above services are not intended to nor shall they provide any commodity trading advice based on or tailored to your particular circumstances or characteristics such as any of your personal financial details, current investments or trading accounts. Past results are not necessarily indicative of Future Results.